Base case
$112.97
Fair value per share
Apple DCF valuation
Deterministic FCFFApple's Base DCF, using a trailing-four-quarter revenue baseline through 2026-06-27, estimates $112.97 per diluted share, 64.2% below the $315.34 market reference. The Bear-to-Bull range is $82.14 to $156.77.
Market reference
$315.34
Implied downside
-64.2%
Scenario range
$82.14–$156.77
Bear to Bull
Enterprise value
$1.69tn
Base DCF
Terminal value
70.4%
Share of enterprise value
Three scenarios
Same engine, explicit assumptions
bear
$82.14
0.8% initial growth, 30.2% EBIT margin, and 10.1% WACC.
base
$112.97
4.2% initial growth, 30.9% EBIT margin, and 9.0% WACC.
bull
$156.77
6.8% initial growth, 31.6% EBIT margin, and 8.1% WACC.
Five-year FCFF forecast
Values in USD billions
| Forecast year | Revenue | EBIT | FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2027 | 486.5 | 150.3 | 138.4 |
| FY 2028 | 505.2 | 156.1 | 123.6 |
| FY 2029 | 522.7 | 161.5 | 119 |
| FY 2030 | 538.8 | 166.5 | 115.7 |
| FY 2031 | 553.4 | 171 | 113.9 |
Sensitivity matrix
Fair value per share across WACC and terminal growth
| WACC \ growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $147.08 | $153.56 | $161.41 | $171.16 | $183.60 |
| 8.0% | $124.60 | $128.37 | $132.78 | $138.02 | $144.37 |
| 9.0% | $108.14 | $110.40 | $112.97 | $115.92 | $119.37 |
| 10.0% | $95.57 | $96.93 | $98.44 | $100.13 | $102.05 |
| 11.0% | $85.68 | $86.48 | $87.34 | $88.29 | $89.33 |
Public evidence
Inspectable inputs used by the model
E01
Apple annual report
AAPL / SEC · Oct 31, 2025 · Business, risk factors, and audited financial statements
E02
Daily Treasury par yield curve rates
U.S. Department of the Treasury · Sep 9, 2026 · Ten-year Treasury rate, September 2026 daily table
E03
Implied equity risk premium and country-risk update
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern · Sep 1, 2026 · Current implied premium, Treasury rate, and U.S. default spread
E04
Electronics (Consumer & Office) industry beta dataset
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern · Jan 31, 2026 · Global industry betas, January 2026
E05
Ratings and default-spread reference table
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern · Jan 31, 2026 · High-grade corporate default-spread reference
E06
Federal Reserve inflation objective
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Aug 22, 2025 · Longer-run inflation goal
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